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Conflict Probability Estimation for Free FlightThe safety and efficiency of free flight will benefit from automated conflict prediction and resolution advisories. Conflict prediction is based on trajectory prediction and is less certain the farther in advance the prediction, however. An estimate is therefore needed of the probability that a conflict will occur, given a pair of predicted trajectories and their levels of uncertainty. A method is developed in this paper to estimate that conflict probability. The trajectory prediction errors are modeled as normally distributed, and the two error covariances for an aircraft pair are combined into a single equivalent covariance of the relative position. A coordinate transformation is then used to derive an analytical solution. Numerical examples and Monte Carlo validation are presented.
Document ID
19970001686
Acquisition Source
Legacy CDMS
Document Type
Technical Memorandum (TM)
Authors
Paielli, Russell A. (NASA Moffett Field, CA United States)
Erzberger, Heinz (NASA Moffett Field, CA United States)
Date Acquired
September 6, 2013
Publication Date
October 1, 1996
Subject Category
Air Transportation And Safety
Report/Patent Number
NASA-TM-110411
NAS 1.15:110411
A-962310
Accession Number
97N11464
Funding Number(s)
PROJECT: RTOP 505-64-13
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.

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