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Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts on Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station: Phase I ResultsThis report describes the results of the ANU's (Applied Meteorology Unit) Short-Range Statistical Forecasting task for peak winds. The peak wind speeds are an important forecast element for the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle programs. The Keith Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group indicate that peak winds are challenging to forecast. The Applied Meteorology Unit was tasked to develop tools that aid in short-range forecasts of peak winds at tower sites of operational interest. A 7 year record of wind tower data was used in the analysis. Hourly and directional climatologies by tower and month were developed to determine the seasonal behavior of the average and peak winds. In all climatologies, the average and peak wind speeds were highly variable in time. This indicated that the development of a peak wind forecasting tool would be difficult. Probability density functions (PDF) of peak wind speed were calculated to determine the distribution of peak speed with average speed. These provide forecasters with a means of determining the probability of meeting or exceeding a certain peak wind given an observed or forecast average speed. The climatologies and PDFs provide tools with which to make peak wind forecasts that are critical to safe operations.
Document ID
20020090715
Acquisition Source
Kennedy Space Center
Document Type
Contractor Report (CR)
Authors
Lambert, Winifred C.
(ENSCO, Inc. Cocoa Beach, FL United States)
Merceret, Francis J.
Date Acquired
September 7, 2013
Publication Date
October 1, 2002
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Report/Patent Number
Rept-02-002
NASA/CR-2002-211180
NAS 1.26:211180
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NAS10-01052
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.
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