Rating the Relevance of QUORUM-Selected ASRS Incident Narratives to a "Controlled Flight into Terrain" Accident

McGreevy, Michael W.; Statler, Irving C.

An exploratory study was conducted to identify commercial aviation incidents that are relevant to a "controlled flight into terrain" (CFIT) accident using a NASA-developed text processing method. The QUORUM method was used to rate 67820 incident narratives, virtually all of the narratives in the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) database, according to their relevance to two official reports on the crash of American Airlines Flight 965 near Cali, Colombia in December 1995. For comparison with QUORUM's ratings, three experienced ASRS analysts read the reports of the crash and independently rated the relevance of the 100 narratives that were most highly rated by QUORUM, as well as 100 narratives randomly selected from the database. Eighty-four of 100 QUORUM-selected narratives were rated as relevant to the Cali accident by one or more of the analysts. The relevant incidents involved a variety of factors, including, over-reliance on automation, confusion and changes during descent/approach, terrain avoidance, and operations in foreign airspace. In addition, the QUORUM collection of incidents was found to be significantly more relevant than the random collection.

Document ID

19980232157

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Ames Research Center

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Technical Memorandum (TM)

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September 6, 2013

Publication Date

September 1, 1998

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